Why the EPA should have listened to Alan Carlin on global wa

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You may recall that back in 1998, Bill Clinton gave a speech to the AAAS and stated that 'human knowledge doubles every 5 years.' I actually researched that statement in another lifetime and found that, while it can double in that time frame if money and resources are lavished on a subject (such as nanotechnology or computer science), if a subject is ignored the doubling rate can be as 'slow' as 15 to 20 years. I did it by counting the number of patents and scientific publications on the subject in each year and computing the compound annual growth rate. The website Scirus.com provides access to a database of scientific publications, patent applications and articles of general interest on a variety of topics. (The tools for calculating compound annual growth rate and speed of doubling appear on this page to the right.)
Between 2005 and now, Scirus has records of 494,693 items with the phrase 'general circulation model' (which is what the computer models that project global warming are called) in the title, text or abstract of the document. Half a million documents that were not available to the IPCC at the time they wrote the document on which the EPA is relying. Of that number, 29,926 are patent applications. As there are 700,354 documents with the same phrase in the entire Scirus database, that means that the IPCC had access to less than one-third the information on computer models that is available today. 70% of everything written about general circulation models has been published in the past 5 years. If you're interested, our knowledge of general circulation models has a compound annual growth rate of 27.7% and seems to double every 2.83 years. (Obviously, some of the documents counted in the database won't really be relevant, and there are often duplications, but the percentages usually work out pretty closely.)

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As I said in a earlier thread the Obama regime will try to stifle anyone who doesn't agree with their agenda... How could they possibly ignore 70% of the evidence needed to make a conclusion just because Obama wants to tax us into oblivion ?? Must be the Obama clan using Miss Cleo's astrological advice..

Man’s contribution to Global Warming:

Do you guys think that our climate is changing? Most of you are older than I am and I've noticed a change just since I've been here. If you think it's a natural cycle, do you believe that this cycle could have horrible effects? Like more powerful hurricanes, etc? What do you suggest we do?

gringaloca wrote:

Do you guys think that our climate is changing? Most of you are older than I am and I've noticed a change just since I've been here. If you think it's a natural cycle, do you believe that this cycle could have horrible effects? Like more powerful hurricanes, etc? What do you suggest we do?

I've seen lots of changes in my lifetime. In the 70s it was bitterly cold and record snowfalls. Then it got warmer from the late 80s through the 90s. It seems to be changing back slowly to cooler. I truly believe that these are natural cycles and there is nothing we can do to change them. I also believe there's nothing to worry about.

Judge Roy Bean wrote:

gringaloca wrote:

Do you guys think that our climate is changing? Most of you are older than I am and I've noticed a change just since I've been here. If you think it's a natural cycle, do you believe that this cycle could have horrible effects? Like more powerful hurricanes, etc? What do you suggest we do?

I've seen lots of changes in my lifetime. In the 70s it was bitterly cold and record snowfalls. Then it got warmer from the late 80s through the 90s. It seems to be changing back slowly to cooler. I truly believe that these are natural cycles and there is nothing we can do to change them. I also believe there's nothing to worry about.

So you haven't noticed how when you go outside that you can't be out there for more than a few minutes without getting a sunburn? And you think it feels cooler out there? Yeah, maybe for the past couple of days but last summer we couldn't even go outside.

[quote="Mongo"][quote="gringaloca"]Do you guys think that our climate is changing? Most of you are older than I am and I've noticed a change just since I've been here. If you think it's a natural cycle, do you believe that this cycle could have horrible effects? Like more powerful hurricanes, etc? What do you suggest we do?

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Is the frequency of hurricanes increasing?

Globally (not just in the North Atlantic), there is an average of about 90 tropical storms every year. According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), globally "[t]here is no clear trend in the annual numbers [i.e. frequency] of tropical cyclones."

However, in the North Atlantic there has been a clear increase in the frequency of tropical storms and major hurricanes. From 1850-1990, the long-term average number of tropical storms was about 10, including about 5 hurricanes. For the period of 1998-2007, the average is about 15 tropical storms per year, including about 8 hurricanes. This increase in frequency correlates strongly with the rise in North Atlantic sea surface temperature, and recent peer-reviewed scientific studies link this temperature increase to global warming.

There is an ongoing scientific debate about the link between increased North Atlantic hurricane activity and global warming. The 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change rates the probability of such a link as “more likely than not.” View a figure of the frequency of tropical storms in the North Atlantic.

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Is the intensity of hurricanes increasing?

Several peer-reviewed studies show a clear global trend toward increased intensity of the strongest hurricanes over the past two or three decades. The strongest trends are in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean. According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), it is “more likely than not” (better than even odds) that there is a human contribution to the observed trend of hurricane intensification since the 1970s. In the future, “it is likely [better than 2 to 1 odds] that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical [sea surface temperatures].”

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Is global warming generating other types of severe weather?

Global temperature has increased and precipitation patterns have changed over the 20th century as a result of human-induced global warming, resulting in some increases in extremes of temperature and precipitation. According to the IPCC-AR4, “[i]ncreases in the amount of precipitation are very likely [better than 9 to 1 odds] in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely [better than 2 to 1 odds] in most subtropical land regions,” and “[i]t is very likely [at least 9 to 1 odds] that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.”

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Will the damages from severe weather become worse in coastal regions?

The biggest reason for increased loss of life and property in coastal regions is population growth and increasing development in coastal areas. As growth and development continue, the damages caused by severe weather will increase regardless of global warming. It stands to reason that climate change, namely sea level rise and increases in tropical storm activity, would exacerbate the damage as global warming continues.

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What can we do to reduce the consequences and costs of severe weather events?

It is clear that the United States is not prepared to handle multiple catastrophic events in a short time period, and many other countries are even less capable of bearing the economic and logistical burdens of catastrophic weather events. We probably will never be completely prepared, but we could do better. We can plan our communities better, we can design our buildings and infrastructure better, and we can manage resources better. Steps taken today to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions will limit the effort necessary to adapt to climate change that will inevitably result from global warming.

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This figure shows the number of named tropical storms in the North Atlantic, per year, smoothed out over a 10-year running average to minimize the noise in year-to-year variation. Since 1996, tropical storm frequency has exceeded by 40% the old historic maximum of the mid-1950s, previously considered extreme. Recent peer-reviewed studies suggest a link between higher sea surface temperature and storm frequency. Extreme weather events are a projected impact of global climate change.

Observed records of Atlantic hurricane activity (e.g., Emanuel 2007) show a strong correlation, on multi-year time-scales, between local tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) (Figure 1). PDI is a combined measure of Atlantic hurricane frequency, intensity, and duration. Both Atlantic SSTs and PDI have risen sharply since the 1970s, and there is some evidence that PDI levels in recent years are higher than in the previous active Atlantic hurricane era in the 1950s and 60s.

Model-based climate change detection/attribution studies have linked increasing tropical Atlantic SSTs to increasing greenhouse gases, but the link between increasing greenhouse gases and hurricane PDI or frequency has been indirect and based on statistical correlations. The indirect linkage of Atlantic PDI to global warming via the correlation of PDI with Atlantic SST suggests at least the possibility of an anthropogenic influence on Atlantic hurricanes. If the correlation between tropical Atlantic SSTs and hurricane activity shown in Figure 1 is used to infer future changes in Atlantic hurricane activity, the implications are sobering: the large increases in tropical Atlantic SSTs projected for the late 21st century would imply very substantial increases in hurricane destructive potential--several times larger than the already large increase in PDI since the 1970s.

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gringaloca wrote:

So you haven't noticed how when you go outside that you can't be out there for more than a few minutes without getting a sunburn? And you think it feels cooler out there? Yeah, maybe for the past couple of days but last summer we couldn't even go outside.

Over all, the temps have been getting cooler, I'll look up the chart on that.
I got sunburned back in the 70s, 80s and 90's just as easily. I don't really see much of a difference if any.

Judge Roy Bean wrote:

gringaloca wrote:

So you haven't noticed how when you go outside that you can't be out there for more than a few minutes without getting a sunburn? And you think it feels cooler out there? Yeah, maybe for the past couple of days but last summer we couldn't even go outside.

Over all, the temps have been getting cooler, I'll look up the chart on that.
I got sunburned back in the 70s, 80s and 90's just as easily. I don't really see much of a difference if any.

That's odd. Every person that I've ever spoke to about the issue has said the exact opposite. Seriously.

I remember laying out when I was a teen for hours and not getting burnt to a crisp. Now I have to go out with the highest spf I can find just to mow the lawn.

I do get burns much worse. I never burned as a kid, but maybe because I stayed outside all of the time in the summer and now I spend most of my time indoors.

I'm not sure how global warming would cause more sunburns though. Thinner ozone layer, yes, but not global warming (natural or manmade)...unless I am missing something.

Annie Oakley wrote:

I do get burns much worse. I never burned as a kid, but maybe because I stayed outside all of the time in the summer and now I spend most of my time indoors.

I'm not sure how global warming would cause more sunburns though. Thinner ozone layer, yes, but not global warming (natural or manmade)...unless I am missing something.

I'm talking about the ozone layer. I guess I'm just talking about our world changing in general. I also find that the seasons have changed since I've been around. We no longer have spring and fall. We have summer and winter and that's about it. And the summers are far more harsh. I spend a great deal of time outdoors. Always have because I had to work in tobacco growing up and now I live on a small farm. I've been through some brutal summers under the sun but there is a very obvious change (at least to me and others I have spoke with). I have to coat my children from head to toe with sunblock and reapply often to keep them from frying. It is also way too hot to play outside and kids are dropping dead at sports practice and games. Something is going on and most charts I have seen show a steady increase in temperatures especially the past 20 years. If it is a natural cycle (which I still don't believe) when is it going to stop? And how hot will it have to get before certain folks believe that it's man-made? What proof will be required? And do the non-believers really think we can pollute this planet as much as we have and not expect any major adverse reactions? It just seems like common sense to me. As a farmer I have noticed big changes in farming as well. Those who raise livestock are fighting a losing battle against parasites because the winters aren't cold enough to really kill off things the way they used to and the summers are so hot that it's nearly impossible to keep the animals parasite free. In fact, my vet fears that soon we won't be able to control worms, etc at all because they are getting so out on control. The de-wormer meds can't keep up and he said it's not just building up a tolerance to the meds. He said the temps seem to play a part because since it's began getting hotter the worm population has exploded. It's a real problem. Even fleas and ticks are horrible.